Carver Thesis Tracker
Bullish/bearish reads aggregated from Carver-annotated regulatory events
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A
Standalone stablecoin bill signed 50%
By Dec 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the U.S. President signs into law a standalone federal bill that establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins.
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B
Framework in larger act signed 50%
By Dec 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the President signs into law broader federal legislation that includes provisions establishing a federal stablecoin regulatory framework.
Carver Signal Narrative
Through 2025, SEC, FinCEN, OCC, FDIC, and CFPB issued reports, advisories, and testimonies on crypto, payments, and banking risks—mostly background with limited direct impact. FinCEN's April interagency advisory and AML moves modestly increased pressure for a federal framework. Congress ultimately passed and the President signed a stablecoin bill in 2025, resolving YES.
Settlement entities
Regulatory timeline (12)
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→ neutral ○FDIC Proposes Regulatory Threshold Adjustments and Indexing to Reflect Inflation
FDIC's inflation-indexing proposal is relevant background on banking regulation but does not directly affect the likelihood of a federal stablecoin bill.
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→ neutral ○SUNS July 15, 2025 (PDF)
Texas Dept. of Banking SUNS references federal agencies and stakeholders — provides background on oversight/cooperation but doesn't directly determine a federal stablecoin law.
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→ neutral ○Imposition of Special Measure Prohibiting Certain Transmittals of Funds Involving Vector Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.
Financial Crimes Enforcement Network — Financial Crimes Enforcement Network: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○Testimony Before the United States Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government
SEC testimony to Appropriations Subcommittee is general oversight/funding testimony and only weakly signals SEC priorities on stablecoins; minimal direct impact.
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→ neutral ○finding and notice of…
FinCEN finding/notice affects crypto regulatory climate but lacks direct bearing on whether Congress will pass and the President will sign a federal stablecoin law.
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→ neutral ○FinCEN Finds Cambodia-Based Huione Group to be of Primary Money Laundering Concern, Proposes a Rule to Combat Cyber Scams and Heists
Financial Crimes Enforcement Network — Financial Crimes Enforcement Network: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○OCC Report Highlights Key Risks in Federal Banking System
OCC's general report flags banking risks but doesn't specifically address a federal stablecoin framework, so it offers only background context.
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↑ bullish ○ SoonerFinCEN Advisory FIN-2025-A001
FinCEN interagency advisory signals heightened concern about crypto/stablecoins, modestly increasing pressure for federal stablecoin legislation.
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→ neutral ○2025 Examination Priorities (PDF)
SEC 2025 exam priorities are regulatory guidance, not law; they signal agency focus on crypto but don't materially change the chance a federal stablecoin bill is signed in 2025.
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→ neutral ○Written Testimony
OCC testimony shows regulator engagement on stablecoins but, without clear policy change or legislative action, doesn't materially change passage odds.
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→ neutral ○SEC Crypto Task Force Designation (PDF)
SEC designates a crypto task force—increases regulatory scrutiny but is background and unlikely to materially affect whether a federal stablecoin bill is signed.
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→ neutral ○Request for Information Regarding the Collection, Use, and Monetization of Consumer Payment and Other Personal Financial Data
CFPB RFI on consumer payment data signals background attention to payments regulation but does not materially change likelihood of a 2025 federal stablecoin law.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the President of the United States signs into law a federal stablecoin regulatory framework bill by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves NO otherwise.