Carver Thesis Tracker
Bullish/bearish reads aggregated from Carver-annotated regulatory events
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A
SEC approves spot SOL ETF on NYSE Arca 50%
By 2025-12-31, SEC issues an effective order approving a NYSE Arca rule change to list and trade a spot Solana ETF (holding SOL directly, not futures).
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B
SEC approves spot SOL ETF on Cboe BZX 50%
By 2025-12-31, SEC issues an effective order approving a Cboe BZX rule change to list and trade a spot Solana ETF (holding SOL directly, not futures).
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C
SEC approves spot SOL ETF on NASDAQ 50%
By 2025-12-31, SEC issues an effective order approving a NASDAQ rule change to list and trade a spot Solana ETF (holding SOL directly, not futures).
Carver Signal Narrative
Early signals were mixed: a 2024 SEC settlement dampened odds, but 2025 saw SEC‑CFTC harmonization and crypto outreach. Momentum turned in Sept 2025 with approval of generic listing standards and intensified custody focus, and Nov’s “Project Crypto” hinted a friendlier posture. The SEC ultimately approved a spot Solana ETF in 2025, resolving the contract YES.
Settlement entities
Regulatory timeline (20)
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→ neutral ○Final Rule Delegation of Authority to the Director of the Division of Investment Management IA-6934
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — Division of Investment Management — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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↑ bullish ◑ SoonerThe Securities and Exchange Commission’s Approach to Digital Assets: Inside “Project Crypto”
Project Crypto signals a more pro-crypto SEC stance, increasing chances the SEC approves a spot Solana ETF before 2025-12-31.
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↓ bearish ◑ LaterPoking Holes: Statement in Response to No-Action Relief for State Trust Companies Acting as Crypto Asset Custodians
SEC statement calling out problems with no-action custody relief signals regulatory caution on crypto custody, lowering odds of timely spot SOL ETF approval.
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↑ bullish ○Cultivating Confidence: The Role of Custody in Institutional Confidence – Public Trust and Oversight; Remarks before the Digital Assets Summit Singapore
SEC speech emphasizing custody and institutional confidence reduces a key regulatory hurdle, modestly increasing odds of spot SOL ETF approval.
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→ neutral ○Agenda, Panelists for SEC-CFTC Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts Announced
CFTC‑SEC harmonization roundtable signals regulatory coordination but provides no direct indication that the SEC will approve a spot SOL ETF in 2025.
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→ neutral ○CFTC and SEC Extend Form PF Compliance Date to Oct. 1, 2026
Extending Form PF reporting to Oct 2026 affects private‑fund compliance timing but has minimal, indirect relevance to SEC approvals of a spot Solana ETF by end of 2025.
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↑ bullish ◑ SoonerSEC Approves Generic Listing Standards for Commodity-Based Trust Shares
SEC approved generic listing standards for commodity-based trust shares, easing approval path and increasing odds (and speeding) of a Cboe-listed spot SOL ETF.
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↑ bullish ◑ SoonerCFTC and SEC Issue Joint Statement on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts
Joint SEC–CFTC harmonization reduces crypto regulatory uncertainty, modestly increasing odds the SEC will approve a spot SOL ETF in 2025.
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→ neutral ○Joint Statement from the Chairman of the SEC and Acting Chairman of the CFTC
Joint SEC/CFTC statement signals regulatory stance on crypto but contains no direct ETF approval action; ambiguous effect on SOL spot ETF odds.
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→ neutral ○SEC and CFTC Issue Joint Statement on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts; Will Co-Host Roundtable Sept. 29
General SEC–CFTC harmonization roundtable is background policy news and does not directly affect approval odds for a spot SOL ETF in 2025.
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→ neutral ○On the Road: SEC Crypto Task Force to Host a Series of Roundtables Across the U.S.
SEC crypto roundtables are general outreach and provide background on policy engagement but do not materially change odds of a spot SOL ETF approval.
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↑ bullish ○ SoonerActing Chairman Pham Lauds Presidential Working Group Recommendations to Usher in Golden Age of Crypto in the U.S.
CFTC praise of PWG pro-crypto recommendations modestly raises regulatory support for crypto, slightly increasing odds the SEC approves a spot SOL ETF.
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→ neutral ○SEC Announces Departure of David Saltiel
Departure of a Division of Trading and Markets official creates review uncertainty but gives no clear directional signal on a spot Solana ETF approval.
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→ neutral ○Policy Statement Concerning Agency Referrals for Potential Criminal Enforcement
Securities and Exchange Commission — Division of Enforcement — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○Brian Daly Named Director of Division of Investment Management
New Division of Investment Management director affects SEC fund oversight but gives no crypto/ETF stance, so it doesn't materially change spot SOL ETF odds.
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→ neutral ○Safeguarding Advisory Client Assets Investment Management
SEC Investment Management guidance on safeguarding client assets is general and may only indirectly affect custody considerations for spot SOL ETFs.
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→ neutral ○SEC to Resume Processing of Registration Applications From Swiss-Based Investment Advisers
Securities and Exchange Commission — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○Form N-PORT and Form N-CEN Reporting; Guidance on Open-End Fund Liquidity Risk Investment Management
General guidance on fund reporting and liquidity risk is background regulatory context for ETFs but does not directly affect a spot SOL ETF approval decision.
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→ neutral ○SEC Crypto Task Force Designation (PDF)
SEC crypto task-force designation is background organizational news and does not directly change odds of a spot Solana ETF approval.
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↓ bearish ◑ LatereToro Reaches Settlement with SEC and Will Cease Trading Activity in Nearly All Crypto Assets
SEC settlement with eToro signals stricter enforcement toward crypto, lowering odds the SEC will approve a spot SOL ETF.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves at least one spot Solana exchange-traded fund (an ETF holding SOL tokens directly, not futures-based) for listing on a U.S. national securities exchange (NYSE Arca, Cboe BZX, or NASDAQ) with an effective approval order issued on or before 2025-12-31. Resolves NO otherwise.