Carver Thesis Tracker
Bullish/bearish reads aggregated from Carver-annotated regulatory events
-
A
19b-4 approval for ADA ETF listing 50%
By Dec 31, 2025, the SEC issues an order approving an exchange’s Rule 19b-4 to list and trade shares of a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF on a U.S. national securities exchange.
-
B
ADA ETF starts trading on exchange 50%
By Dec 31, 2025, shares of a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF actually list and commence trading on any U.S. national securities exchange, implying SEC approval for trading.
Carver Signal Narrative
Through 2025, leadership churn and process uncertainty tempered odds, even as mid‑year signals—SEC/CFTC harmonization, approval of generic commodity‑trust listing standards, NYSE rule prep, and “Project Crypto”—briefly boosted optimism. Countervailing custody skepticism and the lack of ADA‑specific action stalled momentum. The SEC ultimately did not approve a spot Cardano ETF by Dec 31, 2025 (resolved NO).
Settlement entities
Regulatory timeline (20)
-
→ neutral ○Joshua T. White Named SEC Chief Economist
Appointment of SEC chief economist is background and provides little direct information on whether the agency will approve a spot ADA ETF by Dec 31, 2025.
-
→ neutral ○Litigation Releases: Nathan Gauvin; Blackridge, LLC; Gray Digital Capital Management USA, LLC; Gray Digital Technologies, LLC
U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION — Fort Worth Regional Office — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
-
↑ bullish ◑ SoonerThe Securities and Exchange Commission’s Approach to Digital Assets: Inside “Project Crypto”
Inside look at SEC’s 'Project Crypto' suggests a more crypto-friendly stance, modestly increasing odds of SEC approving a spot ADA ETF in 2025.
-
→ neutral ○Disclosure of Order Execution Information Trading and Markets
SEC order on order-execution disclosure concerns market structure, not ETF listing approvals—minimal indirect effect on ADA ETF approval probability.
-
↓ bearish ◑ LaterPoking Holes: Statement in Response to No-Action Relief for State Trust Companies Acting as Crypto Asset Custodians
SEC's critical statement on no-action relief for state-trust crypto custodians raises custody concerns, decreasing odds of a timely approval for a spot ADA ETF.
-
↑ bullish ◑ SoonerCultivating Confidence: The Role of Custody in Institutional Confidence – Public Trust and Oversight; Remarks before the Digital Assets Summit Singapore
SEC remarks stressing custody solutions and oversight reduce custody-related objections to crypto ETFs, increasing odds of SEC approval for a spot ADA ETF.
-
↑ bullish ○ SoonerSelf-Regulatory Organizations; New York Stock Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change to Amend Rule 7.5
NYSE filed an immediate-effectiveness rule change to amend listing rules, suggesting it's preparing to list a spot ADA ETF and modestly raises approval odds.
-
→ neutral ○_Federal Register_ version
An SEC 'Federal Register version' posting could be the formal publication of an order, but without text it’s ambiguous and only weakly informative about an ADA ETF approval.
-
↑ bullish ◑ SoonerSEC Approves Generic Listing Standards for Commodity-Based Trust Shares
SEC's approval of generic listing standards for commodity-based trusts reduces listing barriers for crypto ETFs, increasing odds a spot ADA ETF will be approved and list sooner.
-
↑ bullish ○ SoonerCFTC and SEC Issue Joint Statement on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts
Joint CFTC–SEC harmonization statement suggests smoother coordination, modestly increasing odds the SEC would approve a spot ADA ETF.
-
→ neutral ○Joint Statement from the Chairman of the SEC and Acting Chairman of the CFTC
SEC–CFTC joint statement on crypto jurisdiction provides background policy context but contains no direct action on approving a spot ADA ETF.
-
→ neutral ○On the Road: SEC Crypto Task Force to Host a Series of Roundtables Across the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
-
↑ bullish ◑ SoonerActing Chairman Pham Lauds Presidential Working Group Recommendations to Usher in Golden Age of Crypto in the U.S.
CFTC praise for PWG pro-crypto recommendations signals stronger interagency support, modestly increasing chances the SEC approves a spot ADA ETF in 2025.
-
→ neutral ○SEC Announces Departure of David Saltiel
Departure of an SEC official is background news that creates uncertainty but gives no clear signal on approving a spot ADA ETF in 2025.
-
→ neutral ○Brian Daly Named Director of Division of Investment Management
Naming a new Division of Investment Management director affects ETF review leadership but gives no public signal on Cardano stance, so little change to odds.
-
→ neutral ○SEC to Resume Processing of Registration Applications From Swiss-Based Investment Advisers
Securities and Exchange Commission — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
-
↓ bearish ◑ LaterNatasha Vij Greiner Will Conclude Her Tenure as Director of Investment Management
Director of Investment Management's departure may slow SEC ETF reviews and modestly reduce odds ADA spot ETF is approved before year-end due to transition.
-
→ neutral ○Concept Release on Foreign Private Issuer Eligibility 33-11376, 34-103176
Securities and Exchange Commission — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
-
→ neutral ○Final Management Letter: Audit of the SEC’s Efforts to Recruit and Retain a Highly Skilled Workforce and Address Related Challenges
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — Office of Inspector General — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
-
→ neutral ○2025 Examination Priorities (PDF)
General SEC Examination Priorities document doesn't approve or list an ADA ETF; only offers background on the SEC's crypto oversight focus.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF for trading on a national securities exchange by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves NO otherwise.