Carver Thesis Tracker
Bullish/bearish reads aggregated from Carver-annotated regulatory events
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A
SCOTUS majority in Trump v. Slaughter ↑ 0 ↓ 0 direct
By Dec 31, 2026, SCOTUS issues a majority opinion in Trump v. Slaughter holding the President may remove FTC commissioners without cause.
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B
SCOTUS majority in companion case ↑ 0 ↓ 0 direct
By Dec 31, 2026, SCOTUS issues a majority opinion in a consolidated companion case holding the President may remove FTC commissioners without cause.
Carver Signal Narrative
From Dec 2025 to Apr 2026, the FTC remains active with merger remedies, consent orders, consumer-protection actions, and administrative filings, none of which bear on presidential removal authority. These are background signals with no directional effect; the key legal question remains pending as the market awaits a Supreme Court ruling on whether Trump can fire FTC commissioners.
Settlement entities
Regulatory timeline (7)
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionFTC Stops Operation that Allegedly Targeted People Seeking Student Loan Debt Relief
Federal Trade Commission — Bureau of Consumer Protection — Federal Trade Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionComplaint for Permanent Injunction, Monetary Judgment, and Other Relief
FTC's Apr 9 complaint against StubHub shows the agency is still enforcing rules but provides no direct evidence on the Supreme Court removal issue.
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→ neutral ○ ContextAir AI and its Owners will be Banned from Marketing Business Opportunities to Settle FTC Charges the Company Misled Many Entrepreneurs and Small Businesses
FTC enforcement action shows the agency remains active but does not affect the Supreme Court's legal question on presidential removal, so no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextAttorney General Bonta Opposes Trump Administration’s Attempt to Intimidate Scientific Organizations
State AGs oppose alleged Trump admin intimidation of scientific groups; mentions the FTC but provides no information bearing on the SCOTUS removal question.
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionFTC Finalizes Consent Order in Adamas No-Hire Agreement Matter
Federal Trade Commission — Bureau of Competition — Federal Trade Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextEarly Termination Notices
FTC 'Early Termination Notices' are administrative filings with DOJ/FTC and provide no clear signal about the Supreme Court's decision on removal authority.
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→ neutral ○ ContextFTC Requires Boeing to Divest Several Spirit Assets to Proceed with Merger
FTC ordering Boeing divestitures is routine enforcement background about FTC activity and does not meaningfully affect the SCOTUS removal ruling.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in Trump v. Slaughter (or a consolidated companion case) that the President may remove Federal Trade Commission commissioners without cause, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution requires a majority opinion from the Supreme Court. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. Background: President Trump fired FTC Commissioners Rebecca Kelly Slaughter and Alvaro Bedoya in early 2025. The case challenges the 1935 Humphrey's Executor precedent, which prohibits presidents from removing commissioners of independent agencies without cause. A ruling for Trump would fundamentally restructure the FTC's independence from executive control and reshape antitrust enforcement authority. The Supreme Court's term ends in June 2026; a decision is expected before then. Market currently prices a 97% probability of YES.