Carver Thesis Tracker
Bullish/bearish reads aggregated from Carver-annotated regulatory events
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A
FOMC 25 bps cut on Jan 26, 2028 ↑ 1 ↓ 2 direct
On Jan 26, 2028, the FOMC announces an exact 25 bp reduction in the federal funds rate target range (both bounds down 0.25 pp vs prior), per official Federal Reserve release.
Carver Signal Narrative
Signals are mixed: Waller's Nov 2025 case for continued cuts nudges odds up, while same-day Iran-oil sanctions and Bowman's Feb 2026 hawkish outlook lean against a January 2028 25bp cut. Capital and leverage-rule tweaks and other sanctions are largely tangential, with weak, indirect macro effects. Outcome remains pending; odds hinge on inflation and growth data, financial conditions, and forthcoming Fed guidance into 2027.
Settlement entities
Regulatory timeline (20)
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→ neutral ○ ContextEconomic Fury Ramps Up Pressure on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Oil Operations
Department of the Treasury — Office of Foreign Assets Control — United States Department of the Treasury: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextEconomic Fury Targets Iraqi Oil Official, Iran-Backed Terrorist Militias in Iraq
U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control — Office of Foreign Assets Control — United States Department of the Treasury: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextEconomic Fury Targets Iranian Shadow Banking Networks Moving Billions in Foreign Currency
U.S. Department of the Treasury — Office of Foreign Assets Control — United States Department of the Treasury: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ Context2026-04-30 - New Jersey Employment Report: March 2026
A single-state employment report is an indirect, minor macro signal for FOMC policy but gives no clear directional info toward a Jan 2028 cut.
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→ neutral ○ ContextEconomic Fury Targets Global Network Fueling Iran’s Oil Trade and Shadow Fleet
U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control — United States Department of the Treasury: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionAgencies Finalize Changes to Community Bank Leverage Ratio
Finalized community-bank leverage-rule changes are a background regulatory tweak with minimal indirect effect on odds of a Jan 26, 2028 25bp Fed cut.
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionCommunity Bank Leverage Ratio: Final Rule
Final OCC rule on community bank leverage ratio affects bank capital and credit supply only indirectly, offering minimal signal about a Jan 26, 2028 Fed rate cut.
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→ neutral ○ ContextOver 53 Million Filers Claimed At Least One of President Trump’s Signature New Tax Cuts
U.S. Department of the Treasury — United States Department of the Treasury: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextEconomic Fury Targets Illicit Oil Smuggling Network Run by Iranian Regime Elite
Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control — United States Department of the Treasury: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextStephen I Miran: Prospects for shrinking the Federal Reserve Bank's balance sheet
Bank for International Settlements — Bank for International Settlements: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ SignalRegulatory Capital Rule: Category I and II Banking Organizations, Banking Organizations with Significant Trading Activity, and Optional Adoption for Other Banking Organizations
FDIC capital-rule affects bank resilience and lending conditions, an indirect and small influence on Fed policy but not directly determinative of a Jan‑26, 2028 25bp cut.
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→ neutral ○ SignalAgencies Request Comment on Proposals to Modernize the Regulatory Capital Framework And Maintain the Strength of the Banking System
Regulatory capital proposals are long‑term, indirect signals for monetary policy and provide only a weak, ambiguous influence on a Jan 2028 Fed cut.
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→ neutral ○ SignalRegulatory Capital: Category I and II Banking Organizations, Banking Organizations With Significant Trading Activity, and Optional Adoption for Other Banking Organizations
Banking capital rule proposal affects financial conditions indirectly and only modestly, so it offers little direct information on a Jan 26, 2028 25bp Fed cut.
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→ neutral ○ SignalRegulatory Capital: Standardized Approach for Risk-Weighted Assets
OCC capital-rule affects bank capital and lending only indirectly; it’s a background macroprudential signal unlikely to materially shift odds of a Jan 26, 2028 25bp Fed cut.
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→ neutral ○ ContextPresident Trump’s Tax Cuts are Putting More Money Back into the Pockets of American Families and Workers
U.S. Department of the Treasury — United States Department of the Treasury: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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↓ bearish ◑ ContextMichelle W Bowman: Outlook for the economy and monetary policy
Bowman’s Feb 2026 policy outlook signals persistent hawkishness, reducing the chance a 25bp cut will occur at the Jan 26, 2028 meeting.
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionAgencies Issue Final Rule to Modify Certain Regulatory Capital Standards
Changes to bank capital rules could slightly affect lending and macro conditions that influence Fed cuts, but lacking specifics the effect and direction are unclear.
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionModifications to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio Standards for U.S. Global Systemically Important Bank Holding Companies and Their Subsidiary Depository Institutions: Final Rule
Background OCC final rule changing GSIB eSLR standards; may marginally affect financial conditions but gives no clear signal on a Jan 26, 2028 25bp Fed cut.
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↑ bullish ○ ContextChristopher J Waller: The case for continuing rate cuts
Waller's Nov 2025 speech urging continued rate cuts modestly raises the probability the Fed eases through 2028, making a Jan 26, 2028 cut slightly more likely.
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↓ bearish ○ Context LaterTreasury Tightens Sanctions on Iran’s Oil Network Supporting its Military
US sanctions on Iran's oil network could tighten supply and lift oil-driven inflation, making a Jan 2028 Fed cut slightly less likely.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 26, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.