Carver Thesis Tracker
Bullish/bearish reads aggregated from Carver-annotated regulatory events
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A
BTC > $109,999.99 on CF RT Index ↑ 8 ↓ 2 direct
YES if, at any moment from Jan 2, 2026 6:00 PM ET (inclusive) to before Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index spot price is strictly > $109,999.99 USD.
Carver Signal Narrative
Regulatory signals are mixed: CFTC pilots and ICE/CME 24/7 and market‑maker programs expand crypto derivatives liquidity (bullish). The SEC is reviewing a Nasdaq proposal to list BlackRock’s Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (potentially demand‑boosting), while bank capital tightening and NY AG suits against Coinbase/Gemini pose headwinds (bearish). Pending: SEC ETF decision and litigation outcomes.
Settlement entities
Regulatory timeline (20)
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→ neutral ○ SignalCME | Implementation of the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index Futures Market Maker Program | [2]
Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Office of the Secretariat — Commodity Futures Trading Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCME | Implementation of the Bitcoin Volatility Futures Market Maker Program | [2]
CME’s market‑maker program affects bitcoin derivatives liquidity/volatility but has an indirect and ambiguous effect on the BTC spot reaching $109,999.
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↑ bullish ○ Context SoonerCME | Expansion of the Trading and ClearingHours for all Cryptocurrency Futures and Options on Futures Contracts. | [1]
CME expanding crypto futures trading/clearing hours boosts liquidity and price discovery, modestly increasing odds BTC tops $110k and may resolve sooner.
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↑ bullish ○ Context SoonerCME | Implementation of the Cryptocurrency Options 24/7 Weekend Market MakerProgram | [2]
Bullish: CME's 24/7 weekend market-maker program modestly increases liquidity/trading access, slightly raising odds BTC tops $109,999.99 and may speed timing.
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↑ bullish ○ Context SoonerCME | Implementation of the Cryptocurrency Futures 24/7 Weekend Market Maker Program | [2]
CME's 24/7 weekend market-maker program boosts futures liquidity and continuous price discovery, modestly raising odds BTC tops $109,999.99 — bullish.
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↑ bullish ◑ Signal SoonerSelf-Regulatory Organizations; The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change, as Modified by Amendment No. 1 Thereto, to List and Trade Shares of iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF under Nasdaq Rule 5711(d) (CommodityBased Trust...
SEC notice to list BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF raises institutional access/demand, modestly increasing odds BTC tops $109,999 in 2026.
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→ neutral ○ ContextBitcoin 2026
SEC/Paul Atkins 'Bitcoin 2026' item implies regulatory commentary but contains no concrete policy or market-moving action; only a weak indirect signal on BTC price.
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↓ bearish ◑ Binding ActionAttorney General James Sues Coinbase and Gemini for Running Illegal Gambling Platforms in New York
NY AG sues Coinbase and Gemini; reduced US exchange access/confidence likely lowers BTC demand, making >$110k less likely (medium).
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↑ bullish ○ ContextCOIN | Crypto Market Maker Program - 04/16/2026
CFTC market-maker program for Coinbase derivatives could boost liquidity and institutional demand, slightly increasing odds BTC exceeds $109,999.99.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCME | Modifications to the Event Contract… - 04/16/2026
CFTC notice of CME contract modifications likely only indirectly affects BTC price/liquidity via futures; no clear directional effect on CF RT Index.
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→ neutral ○ Signal04/10/26 - GENIUS Act Requirements and Standards for FDIC-Supervised Permitted Payment Stablecoin Issuers (RIN 3064–AG19)
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — Division of Complex Institution Supervision and Resolution — Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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↓ bearish ◑ Signal LaterRegulatory Capital: Category I and II Banking Organizations, Banking Organizations With Significant Trading Activity, and Optional Adoption for Other Banking Organizations
Capital rule changes tightening banks' trading activity could reduce institutional crypto holdings/trading, lowering odds BTC tops $109,999.99 in 2026.
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→ neutral ○ SignalRegulatory Capital Rule: Category I and II Banking Organizations, Banking Organizations with Significant Trading Activity, and Optional Adoption for Other Banking Organizations
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCME - Extension of the Ultra 10 Options Market Maker Program - 03/12/2026
Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Commodity Futures Trading Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCFE Cboe Bitcoin Continuous Futures Lead Market Maker Program Amendment [2]
Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Commodity Futures Trading Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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↑ bullish ◑ Context SoonerICE US New Cryptocurrency Futures Liquidity Provider Program
CFTC-backed ICE liquidity provider program for crypto futures should improve liquidity and demand, modestly increasing odds BTC tops $109,999.99.
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↑ bullish ○ ContextICE US New Cryptocurrency Futures Market Maker Program
CFTC-backed ICE market-maker program should boost futures liquidity and institutional participation, modestly increasing odds BTC tops $109,999.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCOIN | Modifications to the Perp Style Futures Market Maker Program
CFTC changes to Coinbase's perp futures market-maker program may only indirectly affect BTC liquidity/volatility, so no clear impact on >$109,999 outcome.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCME - Modifications to the Bitcoin Friday Futures Market Maker Program
CME changes to Bitcoin futures market‑maker program can affect liquidity/volatility and thus spot dynamics, but the title alone gives no clear directional effect.
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↑ bullish ◑ Context SoonerActing Chairman Pham Announces Launch of Digital Assets Pilot Program for Tokenized Collateral in Derivatives Markets
CFTC pilot to allow tokenized collateral in derivatives likely boosts institutional demand/liquidity for crypto, modestly increasing odds BTC tops $110k in 2026.
Resolution criteria
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $109999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.