Carver Thesis Tracker
Bullish/bearish reads aggregated from Carver-annotated regulatory events
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H.R.3633 passed & signed by 12/31/26 ET ↑ 2 ↓ 2 direct · ↑ 2 ↓ 0 background
H.R.3633 (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025) passes both House and Senate and is signed into law by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, confirmed by Congress.gov, White House, or GPO.
Carver Signal Narrative
SEC moves in March 2026 to apply securities laws to crypto dampen momentum for shifting jurisdiction, but an April staff statement on broker-dealer registration for crypto UIs revives pressure for statutory clarity. Concurrent CFTC actions, including suits against WI and MN and market-expanding steps, nudge Congress toward a CFTC-friendly CLARITY Act. Bill passage and presidential signature remain pending.
Settlement entities
Regulatory timeline (20)
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↑ bullish ◑ Binding ActionCFTC Sues Minnesota to Block State Law
CFTC suing Minnesota shows federal assertion over state crypto rules, modestly increasing odds Congress favors a federal CLARITY Act (bullish).
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionRescission of Policy Regarding Denials in Settlements of Enforcement Actions
Securities and Exchange Commission — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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↑ bullish ○ ContextCME | Expansion of the Trading and ClearingHours for all Cryptocurrency Futures and Options on Futures Contracts. | [1]
CFTC expanding crypto futures trading hours underscores an active CFTC role in crypto markets, mildly increasing odds Congress favors a CFTC-friendly CLARITY Act.
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→ neutral ○ ContextGMNI - Liquidity Incentive Program - 05/07/2026
CFTC action involving Gemini is tangentially relevant to jurisdictional implementation debates but doesn't materially change chances H.R.3633 will become law.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCDNA - Amendments to rules on Insider definition, jurisdiction… - 05/06/2026
CFTC rule amendments reflect agency activity on crypto jurisdiction but are background regulatory action, not direct evidence of H.R.3633 being passed/signed.
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→ neutral ○ Context05.01.2026 - The changes amend Rules related to Bitnomial's non-FCM Clearing Members - BTNL
Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Commodity Futures Trading Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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↑ bullish ◑ Binding ActionCFTC Sues Wisconsin to Reaffirm its Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets
CFTC suing to assert exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets bolsters its claim over digital markets, modestly increasing H.R.3633's chance (bullish).
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→ neutral ○ ContextGMNI Disclosure about AI information Features available to Members
CFTC disclosure about Gemini AI features shows active regulator involvement in crypto but is background noise that doesn't materially affect H.R.3633 passage odds.
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→ neutral ○ Context13th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation
SEC conference on market regulation signals regulator engagement but provides no clear change to H.R.3633's chances of becoming law.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCOIN | Crypto Market Maker Program - 04/16/2026
CFTC launching a Coinbase crypto market-maker program signals regulatory activity but doesn't materially change likelihood H.R.3633 is enacted.
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionCOIN | Modifications to implement hard limits… - 04/16/2026
CFTC rule change on trading limits (COIN) is an agency action unrelated to Congress passing/signing H.R.3633; provides only minor background context.
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↑ bullish ◑ Signal SoonerStaff Statement Regarding Broker-Dealer Registration of Certain User Interfaces Utilized to Prepare Transactions in Crypto Asset Securities
SEC staff asserting broker-dealer registration for crypto UIs likely increases pressure for Congress to enact clarifying law, raising odds H.R.3633 passes.
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→ neutral ○ SignalNPRM: Anti-Money Laundering and CFT Programs - 10.04.2026
FinCEN's AML/CFT NPRM shapes the digital-asset regulatory backdrop but does not directly affect whether H.R.3633 is passed and signed; low-impact background signal.
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→ neutral ○ Binding ActionAdministrative Summary - 2026-04-08 - Francis Decker, CPA
Securities and Exchange Commission — Accounting and Auditing Enforcement — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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↓ bearish ◑ Binding Action Later91 FR 13714 - 3/23/2026 - Application of the Federal Securities Laws to Certain Types of Crypto Assets
SEC guidance asserting securities coverage of crypto weakens the case for shifting spot jurisdiction to the CFTC, lowering odds that H.R.3633 passes.
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↓ bearish ◑ Binding Action LaterApplication of the Federal Securities Laws to Certain Types of Crypto Assets and Certain Transactions Involving Crypto Assets Corporation Finance
SEC guidance applying securities laws to crypto reduces congressional pressure to pass the CLARITY Act, lowering its passage odds.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCOIN | Modifications to the Non-Crypto Market Maker Program
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Commodity Futures Trading Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextCME - Implementation of the Chainlink, Stellar, & Cardano Futures Market Maker Program
Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Commodity Futures Trading Commission: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextSecretary Bessent Announces Initiatives to Combat Rampant Fraud in Minnesota
Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) — Financial Crimes Enforcement Network: tangential to resolution, no directional effect.
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→ neutral ○ ContextActing Chairman Pham Announces Launch of Digital Assets Pilot Program for Tokenized Collateral in Derivatives Markets
CFTC pilot shows regulator activity on digital assets but is not direct evidence for or against H.R.3633 becoming law.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov, the White House, and the U.S. Government Publishing Office. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The CLARITY Act (also referred to as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) establishes a regulatory framework distinguishing digital commodities from digital securities, granting the CFTC primary jurisdiction over digital commodity spot markets and clarifying the SEC's jurisdiction over digital asset securities.